Loonie Strong as July Bank of Canada Rate Hike Looms

Thursday, June 28, 2018


The loonie is strong this morning as markets fully digest the meaning of Stephen Poloz’s speech yesterday as July Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are firming. Oil prices continue to rise aiding the CAD resilience. The Bank of Canada will release monthly GDP (expected at 0.0%) and their business outlook survey tomorrow.


The US dollar is trading mixed as a result of morning data releases. US final first quarter GDP missed expectations at 2.0% versus 2.2% as a result of weaker than expected consumer spending. GDP is expected to rebound higher in the second quarter as the January $1.5 trillion tax cut works through the economy. Unemployment claims were a slight miss at 227k versus expectation of 220k.


The European Union economic summit started today with immigration and Brexit top of the discussion list. The Euro is quiet awaiting headlines from this meeting. German preliminary and Spanish flash CPI numbers were released at 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively (versus exp. 0.2% and 2.3%).
Markets are turning red with the Dow down 0.17%, the S&P down 0.03%, NASDAQ down 0.33% and the TSX down 0.61%.  Crude oil is strong and up 1.22% ($73.65) and Gold is down 0.18% ($1,253.80).

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